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| Home >>> Analysis >>> 05/08/2006 1 | previous | next | ||||||
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Dave (Green) vs. John (White) Money Game Session |
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Game 01 |
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| Move 1 Green |
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| Pip: 87 | ||
| Game 1 Money session Green-White: Score 0-0 | ||
| Pip: 73 | ||
| # | Ply | Move | Equity | |
| * | 1 | M | 18/12 18/13 | -0,288 |
| 0,0% 1,4% 44,9% 55,1% 6,1% 0,1% | ||||
| Live cube rollout: -0,289 | ||||
| 2 | M | 18/7 | -0,435 (-0,147) | |
| 0,0% 1,6% 39,5% 60,5% 1,8% 0,0% | ||||
| Live cube rollout: -0,456 | ||||
| 3 | 1 | 18/12 6/1 | -1,000 (-0,712) | |
| 0,0% 1,5% 21,9% 78,1% 18,2% 0,3% | ||||
| Checker play |
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Only after a long discussion did Dave play 18/12, 18/13. His argument was, that he does not want to leave two blots with a significantly increased gammon risk, if being hit. There is however a big difference in hitting number between the best play (21 hits) and 18/7 (26 hits). The difference in gammons needs to be twice as big as difference in wins to break even. It turns out it is not even close in this position! |
| Move 1 White |
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| Pip: 87 | ||
| Game 1 Money session Green-White: Score 0-0 | ||
| Pip: 62 | ||
| # | Ply | Move | Equity | |
| 1 | M | 15/12* 11/10 | 0,821 | |
| 0,1% 4,9% 74,4% 25,6% 1,7% 0,0% | ||||
| Live cube rollout: 0,751 | ||||
| 2 | M | 15/12*/11 | 0,801 (-0,020) | |
| 0,1% 3,9% 72,9% 27,1% 0,7% 0,0% | ||||
| Live cube rollout: 0,797 | ||||
| * | 3 | M | 15/12* 10/9 | 0,757 (-0,064) |
| 0,1% 5,8% 75,4% 24,6% 3,2% 0,0% | ||||
| Live cube rollout: 0,693 | ||||
| 4 | 1 | 15/12* 5/4 | 0,270 (-0,551) | |
| 0,1% 6,5% 55,2% 44,8% 10,0% 0,2% | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 15/12* 2/1 | 0,243 (-0,578) | |
| 0,1% 7,4% 54,2% 45,8% 11,3% 0,2% | ||||
| Checker play |
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This is an interesting and hard decision. Hitting with the 3 is clear, but how to play the 1? The problem can be simplified quite a bit by recognizing, that the position will be a double/drop, if Green dances next no matter how the 1 is played. Thus only Green's sixes in the next roll need to be considered. Double sixes will win it for Green no matter how White plays it. Thus we are left with 10 rolls 6-1 to 6-5. Playing totally safe does not even give White a redouble on a 6-1 for example, but on the other hand he will be a favorite on any of the 10 rolls. 15/12(*), 11/10 creates a third builder, which is enough for a very nice double on 6-1, 6-2, 6-3, and 6-4, but leaves White exposed to a 6-5 joker. 15/12(*), 10/9 is the all out play, leading to a double/drop on 6-1, 6-2, 6-4, but also leaves to jokers. This is very hard to judge over the board. |
| Move 2 Green |
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| Pip: 83 | ||
| Game 1 Money session Green-White: Score 0-0 | ||
| Pip: 74 | ||
| # | Ply | Move | Equity | |
| * | 1 | 1 | bar/16* | 0,685 |
| 0,5% 25,5% 77,7% 22,3% 4,4% 0,2% | ||||
| 2 | 1 | bar/19 12/9 | -1,000 (-1,686) | |
| 0,0% 1,9% 22,8% 77,2% 7,8% 0,2% | ||||
| 3 | 1 | bar/19 6/3 | -1,000 (-1,686) | |
| 0,0% 1,5% 18,8% 81,2% 15,3% 0,3% | ||||
| 4 | 1 | bar/19 5/2 | -1,000 (-1,686) | |
| 0,0% 1,3% 17,7% 82,3% 15,7% 0,3% | ||||
| Joker (1,633) |
