in Austin
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| Home >>> Analysis >>> 10/10/2005 1 | previous | next | ||||||
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John (Green) vs. Afshin (White) |
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| Pip: 9 | ||
| Game 1 Money session Green-White: Score 0-0 | ||
| Pip: 22 | ||
| # | Ply | Move | Equity | |
| 1 | D | 4/off | -0,707 | |
| 0,0% 0,0% 12,4% 87,6% 0,0% 0,0% | ||||
| 2 | D | 3/off 2/1 | -0,723 (-0,017) | |
| 0,0% 0,0% 11,7% 88,3% 0,0% 0,0% | ||||
| 3 | D | 5/4 3/off | -0,724 (-0,017) | |
| 0,0% 0,0% 11,7% 88,3% 0,0% 0,0% | ||||
| 4 | D | 5/1 | -0,724 (-0,017) | |
| 0,0% 0,0% 11,7% 88,3% 0,0% 0,0% | ||||
| 5 | D | 4/1 4/3 | -0,763 (-0,057) | |
| 0,0% 0,0% 10,0% 90,0% 0,0% 0,0% | ||||
| Cube action |
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What a boring postion is this? Yeah, you are right, but there was some debate about what is the best move here. Usually you prepare for the big double, which is needed to win this game. Therefore it seems natural to play 3/off, 5/4 to get four checkers to the 4 point in case the next roll is a double 4. That is usually right, but not here. 4/off is slightly better, because it does not make a difference for the double 4s (It's just the same, whether there is one checker on the 1 and one on the 2 point left, or whether there is just the one on the 2 point). The subtle difference lies in the double 3s: 4/off leaves 4 checkers (2 on the 1 and 2 point each), which allows a win with another double. 3/off, 5/4 leaves five checkers on the board with double 3s and no chance to win the game. Having said that, I have to admit, that the difference is really very minor, because it requires no double from White and a double 3 followed by another double bigger than 1-1 from Green - a 0.7% chance according to the Snowie database. Another play, that was suggested is 5/2, 3/2, which may look good, because it also prepares for double 2s. Looking more closely It does not help at all with double 2s, which still need to be backed up by at least double 4s to win. But it hurts the winning chances overall considerably, because any 1 rolled by Green will now lose the game, even if the other roll is 6-6. Therefore 3/2, 5/2 is a blunder reducing the winning chances by 5.5%! This was quite a long text for an almost trivial position, but it shows, that it pays to think about how the doubles will work in this type of position. At least the blunders should be avoided. The play at the table was 3/off, 5/4, Green never roled a double and White won easily. |
