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| Home >>> Analysis >>> 06/06/2005 1 | previous | next | ||||||
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Wolfram (Green) vs. Afshin (White) Money Game Session |
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Game 01 |
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| Pip: 179 | ||
| Game 1 Money session Green-White: Score 0-0 | ||
| Pip: 137 | ||
| 1. | Green | Double |
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| White | Take | |
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| Cube action equity | |||
| Mini-Rollout | Money equity: | 0,571 | |
| 6,2% 36,4% 63,1% 36,9% 10,8% 0,9% | |||
| Evaluations | |||
| 1. | Redouble, take | 0,872 | |
| 2. | No redouble | 0,807 | (-0,065) |
| 3. | Redouble, pass | 1,000 | (+0,128) |
| Proper cube action: Redouble, take | |||
| Live cube | |||
| 1. | Redouble, take | 0,870 | |
| 2. | No redouble | 0,801 | (-0,069) |
| 3. | Redouble, pass | 1,000 | (+0,130) |
| Proper cube action: Redouble, take | |||
| Cube action |
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I was surprised how quickly all four opponents took this cube. This may not look like much, but Green is a very heavy favorite here. There are 13 rolls, which hit and cover the 5-point, which could be desastrous for White. Even if Green just covers the 5-point (and only 6-4 and 4-2 do not cover), the stack of checkers on Green's 1-point looks like trouble for White. Snowie gives a clear double/take evaluation, whereas GnuBG says double/drop. Relatively unusual, that the two bots differ by such a wide margin! |
| Move 2 Green |
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| Pip: 179 | ||
| Game 1 Money session Green-White: Score 0-0 | ||
| Pip: 137 | ||
| # | Ply | Move | Equity | |
| * | 1 | 3 | 23/17 10/5 | 0,345 |
| 3,6% 32,6% 62,0% 38,0% 11,1% 0,6% | ||||
| 2 | 3 | 21/15 10/5 | 0,314 (-0,031) | |
| 2,9% 31,3% 61,6% 38,4% 11,3% 0,6% | ||||
| 3 | 2 | 10/5 8/2 | 0,131 (-0,214) | |
| 3,6% 30,7% 54,6% 45,4% 13,2% 0,8% | ||||
| 4 | 2 | 21/10 | 0,113 (-0,232) | |
| 2,2% 25,4% 56,5% 43,5% 12,9% 0,6% | ||||
| 5 | 2 | 23/12* | 0,096 (-0,249) | |
| 3,1% 28,0% 55,0% 45,0% 14,1% 0,9% | ||||
| Move 2 White |
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| Pip: 179 | ||
| Game 1 Money session Green-White: Score 0-0 | ||
| Pip: 126 | ||
| # | Ply | Move | Equity | |
| * | 1 | 3 | 24/21(2) 7/4*(2) | -0,002 |
| 0,8% 14,0% 46,2% 53,8% 22,4% 1,8% | ||||
| 2 | 3 | 24/21(2) 16/13 7/4* | -0,040 (-0,039) | |
| 0,6% 12,2% 45,6% 54,4% 23,1% 1,6% | ||||
| 3 | 3 | 24/21 16/13 7/4*(2) | -0,079 (-0,077) | |
| 1,0% 16,2% 44,0% 56,0% 26,3% 2,8% | ||||
| 4 | 2 | 24/21(2) 13/10 7/4* | -0,176 (-0,175) | |
| 0,5% 10,4% 42,4% 57,6% 26,7% 2,1% | ||||
| 5 | 2 | 16/13 7/4*(3) | -0,187 (-0,185) | |
| 0,6% 14,5% 39,9% 60,1% 26,0% 2,1% | ||||
| Checker play |
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After Green's mediocre roll, this is by far the best roll for White! |
| Move 3 Green |
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| Pip: 167 | ||
| Game 1 Money session Green-White: Score 0-0 | ||
| Pip: 130 | ||
| # | Ply | Move | Equity | |
| * | 1 | 1 | Can't move | -0,307 |
| 1,2% 17,9% 45,8% 54,2% 20,4% 1,2% | ||||
| Move 3 White |
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| Pip: 167 | ||
| Game 1 Money session Green-White: Score 0-0 | ||
| Pip: 130 | ||
| # | Ply | Move | Equity | |
| * | 1 | 1 | 13/8* | 0,406 |
| 1,3% 21,5% 56,9% 43,1% 15,6% 1,1% | ||||
| 2 | 1 | 16/11 | 0,030 (-0,376) | |
| 0,8% 14,3% 46,8% 53,2% 21,1% 1,6% | ||||
| 3 | 1 | 16/15 13/9 | 0,019 (-0,387) | |
| 0,8% 13,8% 46,2% 53,8% 20,5% 1,5% | ||||
| 4 | 1 | 13/9 5/4 | -0,017 (-0,423) | |
| 0,7% 13,8% 45,1% 54,9% 21,3% 1,5% | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 13/9 7/6 | -0,037 (-0,443) | |
| 0,8% 13,4% 44,0% 56,0% 20,6% 1,5% | ||||
| Checker play |
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Before this roll John doubled me, while the other three players waited. This is very optimistic! Even if White hits, he just has a 3-point board and many checkers back, which will have a long way to get around. Snowie and GnuBG agree, that the proper cube action is no double/beaver! Owning the cube makes Green a slight favorite. |
| Move 4 Green |
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| Pip: 162 | ||
| Game 1 Money session Green-White: Score 0-0 | ||
| Pip: 138 | ||
| # | Ply | Move | Equity | |
| * | 1 | 1 | bar/23 | -0,469 |
| 1,0% 15,4% 41,4% 58,6% 23,3% 1,4% | ||||
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| Pip: 162 | ||
| Game 1 Money session Green-White: Score 0-0 | ||
| Pip: 136 | ||
| White | Double | |
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| 5. | Green | Take |
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| Cube action equity | Wrong double | ||
| Mini-Rollout | Money equity: | 0,219 | |
| 1,5% 25,1% 56,7% 43,3% 16,9% 1,3% | |||
| Evaluations | |||
| 1. | No redouble | 0,428 | |
| 2. | Redouble, take | 0,122 | (-0,307) |
| 3. | Redouble, pass | 1,000 | (+0,572) |
| Proper cube action: No redouble, take | 35% | ||
| Live cube | |||
| 1. | No redouble | 0,432 | |
| 2. | Redouble, take | 0,110 | (-0,322) |
| 3. | Redouble, pass | 1,000 | (+0,568) |
| Proper cube action: No redouble, take | 36% | ||
| Cube action |
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Now everybody else doubled and indeed this looks scary. But even now it will take a pretty good sequence of rolls for White to succeed. If he does, there is a considerable gammon danger and owning 4 cubes at 8 with a possible gammon can easily be very expensive. So it takes some courage, but on the other hand if White does not make the point on Green's head, he may be in immediate trouble and there are gammons on that side too! I took all three cubes and as it turns out it was a correct decision and a huge blunder to double, but it also cost me a lot of money! White rolled 5-3 and made the 2-point, I danced 3 or 4 times on the four point board. Then I managed to come in and hit a miracle shot from the bar. After another joker extracting my back checker I was a favorite again only to be hit by an indirect shot and failing to hit back twice. At least I was not gammoned, which somewhat limits the loss. On top of that I was educated after the game by one of the players, that this was a clear drop. Oh well, thanks for the advice! |
