in Austin
bear
bear
|
|
|
|
||||||
|
in Austin |
|
|
|
|
bear |
bear |
||
| Home >>> Analysis >>> 04/02/2005 1 | previous | next | ||||||
| Wolfram (Green) vs. Birol (White) |
| 9 point Match |
 |
Game 01 |
|
|
|
Match to 9. Score Green-White: 0-1 |
|
|
|
||
| Pip: 111 | ||
| Game 1 9 point match Green-White: Score 0-1 | ||
| Pip: 123 | ||
| 1. | Green | Double |
 |
| White | Take | |
|
| Cube action equity | Wrong take | ||
| Mini-Rollout | Money equity: | 0,593 | |
| 0,4% 15,7% 74,2% 25,8% 4,9% 0,3% | |||
| Evaluations | |||
| 1. | Redouble, pass | 1,000 | |
| 2. | No redouble | 0,911 | (-0,089) |
| 3. | Redouble, take | 1,150 | (+0,150) |
| Proper cube action: Redouble, pass | |||
| Live cube | |||
| 1. | Redouble, pass | 1,000 | |
| 2. | No redouble | 0,908 | (-0,092) |
| 3. | Redouble, take | 1,144 | (+0,144) |
| Proper cube action: Redouble, pass | |||
| Move 2 Green |
|
|
| Pip: 111 | ||
| Game 1 9 point match Green-White: Score 0-1 | ||
| Pip: 123 | ||
| # | Ply | Move | Equity | |
| * | 1 | M | 20/8 8/2(2) | 0,886 |
| 0,6% 25,4% 83,3% 16,7% 3,7% 0,3% | ||||
| Live cube rollout: 0,872 | ||||
| 2 | M | 20/14(2) 14/8 11/5 | 0,813 (-0,074) | |
| 0,1% 13,1% 85,5% 14,5% 0,9% 0,0% | ||||
| Live cube rollout: 0,802 | ||||
| 3 | M | 20/8(2) | 0,809 (-0,077) | |
| 0,1% 12,2% 86,1% 13,9% 1,1% 0,0% | ||||
| Live cube rollout: 0,805 | ||||
| 4 | 3 | 20/14(2) 14/8 13/7 | 0,839 (-0,048) | |
| 0,3% 15,6% 86,3% 13,7% 2,6% 0,1% | ||||
| 5 | 3 | 20/14(2) 14/8 9/3 | 0,832 (-0,054) | |
| 0,3% 15,0% 86,1% 13,9% 1,6% 0,1% | ||||
| Checker play |
|
Play it save or play for the gammon? At the board I thought about it for some time and decided it was worth going for the gammon. Snowie agrees with this evaluation. There are a few disaster rolls now, like 1-1... |
| Move 2 White |
|
|
| Pip: 111 | ||
| Game 1 9 point match Green-White: Score 0-1 | ||
| Pip: 99 | ||
| # | Ply | Move | Equity | |
| * | 1 | 2 | bar/24 7/6 6/5*(2) | 0,070 |
| 0,7% 17,8% 49,9% 50,1% 17,9% 0,8% | ||||
| 2 | 2 | bar/24 8/7 6/5*/4 | -0,153 (-0,223) | |
| 0,4% 10,7% 40,6% 59,4% 15,1% 0,5% | ||||
| 3 | 1 | bar/24 6/5*(3) | -0,244 (-0,315) | |
| 0,5% 10,3% 37,3% 62,7% 15,8% 0,6% | ||||
| 4 | 1 | bar/24 8/5* | -0,348 (-0,418) | |
| 0,6% 12,7% 37,0% 63,0% 25,6% 1,1% | ||||
| 5 | 1 | bar/24 6/5* 2/1(2) | -0,397 (-0,467) | |
| 0,5% 11,0% 35,4% 64,6% 26,0% 1,1% | ||||
| Joker (1,003) |
| Checker play |
|
Going for the gammon backfires badly. |
| Move 3 Green |
|
|
| Pip: 107 | ||
| Game 1 9 point match Green-White: Score 0-1 | ||
| Pip: 104 | ||
| # | Ply | Move | Equity | |
| 1 | M | bar/24 11/8 | -0,064 | |
| 0,7% 16,1% 51,0% 49,0% 13,3% 0,7% | ||||
| Live cube rollout: -0,066 | ||||
| * | 2 | M | bar/24 9/6 | -0,115 (-0,051) |
| 0,5% 13,9% 50,1% 49,9% 11,7% 0,6% | ||||
| Live cube rollout: -0,095 | ||||
| 3 | M | bar/22 9/8 | -0,152 (-0,088) | |
| 1,0% 18,4% 48,3% 51,7% 21,8% 1,3% | ||||
| Live cube rollout: -0,142 | ||||
| 4 | M | bar/24 13/10 | -0,153 (-0,089) | |
| 0,6% 14,2% 48,5% 51,5% 13,6% 0,8% | ||||
| Live cube rollout: -0,143 | ||||
| 5 | M | bar/22 13/12 | -0,180 (-0,116) | |
| 1,0% 17,7% 47,0% 53,0% 19,5% 1,1% | ||||
| Live cube rollout: -0,164 | ||||
| Checker play |
|
I thought it would be important to reduce the chances of being hit by the escaping back checker. It seems to be slightly better to keep the builders for the bar point and have more numbers to hit on the 1-point. |
|
|
||
| Pip: 107 | ||
| Game 1 9 point match Green-White: Score 0-1 | ||
| Pip: 100 | ||
| White | Double | |
|
| 4. | Green | Take |
|
| Cube action equity | Wrong double | ||
| Mini-Rollout | Money equity: | -0,024 | |
| 0,6% 11,6% 49,8% 50,2% 13,8% 0,5% | |||
| Evaluations | |||
| 1. | No redouble | 0,094 | |
| 2. | Redouble, take | -0,255 | (-0,349) |
| 3. | Redouble, pass | 1,000 | (+0,906) |
| Proper cube action: No redouble, take | 28% | ||
| Live cube | |||
| 1. | No redouble | 0,092 | |
| 2. | Redouble, take | -0,245 | (-0,337) |
| 3. | Redouble, pass | 1,000 | (+0,908) |
| Proper cube action: No redouble, take | 27% | ||
| Cube action |
|
This cube is very premature. White is just barely a favorite to win. the position is very volatile, but that alone is not enough to double. Green might be scared and drop the cube, but I would not count on that. |
| Move 4 White |
|
|
| Pip: 107 | ||
| Game 1 9 point match Green-White: Score 0-1 | ||
| Pip: 100 | ||
| # | Ply | Move | Equity | |
| 1 | M | 24/13 | -0,231 | |
| 0,2% 3,8% 42,5% 57,5% 27,3% 0,7% | ||||
| Live cube rollout: -0,245 | ||||
| 2 | M | 9/3 8/3 | -0,330 (-0,099) | |
| 0,7% 9,7% 37,8% 62,2% 29,9% 1,2% | ||||
| Live cube rollout: -0,346 | ||||
| * | 3 | M | 9/4 7/1* | -0,351 (-0,120) |
| 0,6% 13,1% 36,8% 63,2% 27,2% 1,3% | ||||
| Live cube rollout: -0,368 | ||||
| 4 | M | 24/18 7/2 | -0,398 (-0,167) | |
| 0,2% 4,3% 34,7% 65,3% 13,5% 0,3% | ||||
| Live cube rollout: -0,418 | ||||
| 5 | M | 8/2 7/2 | -0,483 (-0,252) | |
| 0,5% 7,4% 30,7% 69,3% 14,4% 0,4% | ||||
| Live cube rollout: -0,508 | ||||
| Blunder (0,123) |
| Checker play |
|
Scary or not, it seems White has to extricate his back checker. If not hit, White is in great shape to win. There are 22 hits though and after being hit White will have a tough time getting back in the game. This is a very tough choice and hard to evaluate the various plays. |
