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| Home >>> Analysis >>> 08/14/2006 1 | previous | next | ||||||
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Wolfram (Green) vs. Dave (White) Money Game Session |
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Game 01 |
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| Pip: 37 | ||
| Game 1 Money session Green-White: Score 0-0 | ||
| Pip: 30 | ||
| 1. | Green | Double |
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| White | Take | |
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| Cube action equity | Wrong double | ||
| Mini-Rollout | Money equity: | 0,381 | |
| 0,0% 0,0% 69,1% 30,9% 0,0% 0,0% | |||
| Evaluations | |||
| 1. | No redouble | 0,607 | |
| 2. | Redouble, take | 0,558 | (-0,049) |
| 3. | Redouble, pass | 1,000 | (+0,393) |
| Proper cube action: No redouble, take | 11% | ||
| Live cube | |||
| 1. | No redouble | 0,607 | |
| 2. | Redouble, take | 0,540 | (-0,067) |
| 3. | Redouble, pass | 1,000 | (+0,393) |
| Proper cube action: No redouble, take | 15% | ||
| Cube action |
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I overestimated my chances of winning, if I manage not to be hit. I thought, I would lose my market, which in many cases I would not. correct take from Dave. |
| Move 2 Green |
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| Pip: 37 | ||
| Game 1 Money session Green-White: Score 0-0 | ||
| Pip: 30 | ||
| # | Ply | Move | Equity | |
| 1 | R | 6/off | -0,124 | |
| 0,0% 0,0% 52,0% 48,0% 0,0% 0,0% | ||||
| Live cube rollout: -0,126 | ||||
| * | 2 | R | 6/1 6/5 | -0,183 (-0,058) |
| 0,0% 0,0% 48,6% 51,4% 0,0% 0,0% | ||||
| Live cube rollout: -0,186 | ||||
| 3 | 3 | 6/1 2/1 | -0,275 (-0,150) | |
| 0,0% 0,0% 44,9% 55,1% 0,0% 0,0% | ||||
| 4 | 1 | 6/1 3/2 | -0,789 (-0,665) | |
| 0,0% 0,0% 25,6% 74,4% 0,0% 0,0% | ||||
| Checker play |
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This came as a surprise to me! My thinking was like this: 6/1, 6/5 leaves two less shots, that is about 6% less losses, assuming I lose, when I get hit and win otherwise. I did not believe taking one man off could balance that. Where did I go wrong? Well for one thing I do not win, if I am not hit. My actual winning chances may be around 75%. It seems taking one man off only increases those chances by about 2%. On the other hand, if being hit, I do not lose automatically and in fact in this case the additional man off seems to have a big impact on the winning chances (about 7%). |
