in Austin
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| Home >>> Analysis >>> 08/07/2006 5 | previous | next | ||||||
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John (Green) vs. Dave (White) |
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| Pip: 74 | ||
| Game 1 Money session Green-White: Score 0-0 | ||
| Pip: 22 | ||
| # | Ply | Move | Equity | |
| 1 | M | 3/off 2/off | 1,119 | |
| 1,4% 30,4% 91,5% 8,5% 0,0% 0,0% | ||||
| Live cube rollout: 1,117 | ||||
| 2 | M | 3/off 3/1* | 1,067 (-0,051) | |
| 0,3% 27,4% 91,4% 8,6% 0,0% 0,0% | ||||
| Live cube rollout: 1,074 | ||||
| 3 | 3 | 4/1* 4/2 | 0,998 (-0,121) | |
| 0,2% 22,7% 90,2% 9,8% 0,0% 0,0% | ||||
| 4 | 1 | 4/1* 2/off | 0,692 (-0,426) | |
| 0,7% 18,2% 79,0% 21,0% 0,0% 0,0% | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 4/1* 3/1 | 0,677 (-0,442) | |
| 0,2% 18,6% 78,4% 21,6% 0,0% 0,0% | ||||
| Cube action |
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No big deal, but the play made at the table is slightly worse. It seems clear, that 3/off, 2/off creates more gammons, but I find it surprising, that it actually wins more games! I thought hitting would be safer, because both plays leave the same number of shots, but geting White off the 1-point should make the next play much safer. So what is going on? If Green bears off 2, and White stays back, Green needs either a 1 or a double except for 2-2 or a 3-2 in order not to leave a shot. That makes only 17 safe rolls. on the other hand White will not stay back with big doubles and 6-5. And even if being hit on the second roll, that will hardly be enough for White to win. If being hit immediately, bearing one more checker in may make a difference in the end, also increasing the winning chances for that play. Overall it seems to be almost a wash, but the addtional gammons tip the scale. The increased number of backgammons should also be noted! |
