Statistics By Greg Black

Protest Stolen Election 2004

My name is Greg Black. I am a statistical analyst by training and trade. I have 25 years of experience analyzing complex statistical data. It is my most considered, responsible, and researched position as a scientist and a statistician that:

The results of the 2004 United States of America presidential election prove, beyond the shadow of a reasonable doubt that massive amounts of outright voter fraud have occurred.
The presidential vote totals have been systematically altered to benefit G. W. Bush and install him, for another four years, as the President of the United States.

Below I have collected an incredible amount of documentation to prove that the election held to determine the next President was stolen on November 2, 2004. I STRONGLY encourage you to check this out for yourself but in the mean time, one important detail that the news media want to keep quiet is that the election is not final until it is certified by Congress when they meet on January 6, 2005. We do not have to simply roll over and allow this theft to be finalized.

If we Don’t defend democracy NOW, we won’t have to bother to defend it next election because it would already be too late.

WHAT CAN WE DO?

PROTEST

I propose that there be spontaneous demonstrations on Thursday, January 20th at 7 PM all over America to protest the stolen election and to press for Free and Fair Elections in 2006.

Crawford, Texas will have a protest.

PROTEST:
TELL WHAT WE WANT

We call upon all the Senators and Representatives, Republican and Democrat alike, to call for a new Presidential Election in Ohio and Florida based upon overwhelming evidence of manipulation of the vote totals.

The Republicans are asking for a new vote for Governor in Washington. If the Republicans can ask for a re-vote on the Governorship in Washington, aren’t we only well within reason to ask for a revote in Ohio and Florida for the Presidency of the United States? And this request for a re-vote is based upon overwhelming evidence that the vote has been hijacked.

In Ukraine they held a re-vote for the position of President. The GOP is asking for a re-vote in Washington. A re-vote is only logical for the most important office held in the entire world, President of the United States of America, especially in the face of such overwhelming evidence of disenfranchisement, disparity along economic lines and outright fraud of vote-switching and incorrectly totalling voting machines.

Protest. If you are in a state capital, do it on the capital grounds. If not, the city hall or county courthouse will do.

It may be too late for getting permits in some places. Don’t let that stop you.

If the media had reported this, we would already be in the streets. I believe that most Americans (Democrats and Republicans alike) value fairness, honesty, and democracy over all.

I believe it is not too late to take to the streets.

Most cities and state capitals will not stop you without a permit, but they do like to be informed, so give them the courtesy of letting them know what you are going to do.

WRITE LETTERS/EMAIL YOUR REPRESENTATIVES TO SUPPORT VOTE REFORM:

Email Representative Conyers of the Judiciary committee and support ELECTON REFORM:

http://judiciary.house.gov/Contact.aspx *

* Note: I am presenting each link as one which opens into a new page, so that you may follow this article without having to bounce back and forth, keeping track of where you are in the external data without losing track of where you are in this text. To return to this text, simply close the new window. Alternatively, you can leave the new window open and click on this window which should remain open while you review the external data within each link.

Contact John Kerry: http://kerry.senate.gov/bandwidth/contact/email.html,
Hillary Clinton: http://clinton.senate.gov/offices.html, and
Tom Dashle to get them to join in the fight for democracy. You will have to write a letter to Senator Dashle, as I could not email him through his site.

Contact other senators also:

http://www.senate.gov/

Contact your Representatives in Congress:

http://www.congress.org/congressorg/dbq/officials/

Sign some online petitions:

http://www.moveon.org/investigatethevote/

http://www.petitiononline.com/uselect/petition-sign.html

http://capwiz.com/pdamerica/mail/compose/
?alertid=6748426&id=168&id=200&id=315&id=403&id=432&id=477&id=499&id=660&id=689&type=TA

http://www.globalexchange.org/getInvolved/petition_voter_bill_of_rights.php

Our Democracy is being stolen. I urge all patriots, true Republicans especially, to stand up and demand that the will of the people be honored. If we allow our democracy to be stolen again, we can no longer call ourselves patriots. I, for one, will not stand for it.

Every single idiosyncratic, unexplained “glitch” that happened in the election was in one direction: benefiting G. W. Bush. If these immense number of flaws, problems, etc. were truly random, you would expect a 50-50 split in the effects of the “glitch”. Instead, what you have is that EVERY SINGLE “GLITCH” that happened WAS IN THE DIRECTION OF BENEFITTING G. W. BUSH!

So, when they try to say it was just a glitch, remember that. When they say it’s “just a minor glitch, and it didn't affect the election,” remember that 100% of the “glitches” were in one direction, for Bush. As a statistician, it is pretty hard to swallow that purely random events went 100% in one direction.

There are certain numbers that cannot exist in reality, like more people voting than are registered in a particular area. Here is my short list of impossible numbers. I start with an impossible statistical probability.

A little about political polling: This is a science, not an art. The methodology of stratified sampling and weighting that is done has been refined for decades. All polling is done with a scientific precision where there is a possible margin of error of +/- 4%.

The three thresholds of statistical significance that we use in social sciences are 5%, 1%, and when you really have a strong relationship, 0.1%. So, to be considered “true” in social sciences, you must have a relationship that is statistically significant at 5% (5 out of 100) to 0.1% (1 out of 1000). A social science researcher that gets a 0.1% significance feels like he has hit the jackpot, statistically speaking.

With these polls, the standard of error is plus or minus 4%. To be statistically significantly wrong here is to say that reality is more different than the 4% margin of error.

International observers of elections who observe elections in other countries (like Ukraine) use exit polls to judge whether or not the election has been stolen after the ballots were cast. When they see official results that are vastly different than the election exit polls, like recently in Ukraine, they know that the results were high jacked.

Now, according to the media, the polling data is all of a sudden wrong. But the polls are only wrong here in the USA. And, for the first time in decades.

The exit polls were correct for any non swing state presidential race, and all the swing state Senate races.

The “wrong” exit poll results occurred only in swing states, and there the polls were wrong only for the presidential race.

That’s right. The only places where the exit polls were wrong were in the swing states. And here it gets real good. The only two areas where the exit polls in the state went for one candidate and the official vote differed were:

Losing either of these states tosses the race to Kerry, so the voter fraud is absolutely necessary to succeed in these two states in order to steal the presidency.

It is statistically impossible for the exit polls to be off by the amounts that the reported vote totals would imply. Looking at New Hampshire (polls are off by 16%) and Minnesota (polls off by 7%) alone would provide enough statistical evidence that something is very wrong. Combining the amount of error in the polls for all swing states produces such an incredible low probability of the polls being wrong that the only conclusion is that the vote totals were changed after the voting stopped.

Looking only at Florida and Ohio, and the unrealistic vote numbers makes this particularly strange.

Remember the three levels of statistical significance that range from 5 out of 100 to, if you have a really strong relationship, 1 out of 1000? What do you figure is the likelihood that the Ohio and Florida exit polls could be off as much as they supposedly were?

That’s right; 1 in 662,000. This is so statistically significant that the number to describe it is enormous.

And, although it is oriented more to the statisticians amongst us, this researcher explains exactly how the probability is ascertained. According the this researcher (and others who have run the numbers), the chances that Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio exit polls could have been off as much as they were is 1 in 250,000,000. That’s right, one in 250 million.

There is no other reasonable, logical, and statistically sound explanation for these “erroneous” exit polls than that the official vote totals were changed, and do not reflect the true vote that occurred in the swing states.

If you assume the opposite, that the polls were somehow faked or purposely done wrong, what, I wonder, would be the motivation? The theory here is that mainstream corporate media paid for the pollsters to purposely get it wrong in order to discourage Republicans from going to the polls and thereby help Kerry win. Is a Kerry win going to benefit the corporate media in some way that Bush would not?

The answer is no. Kerry has gone on record against allowing any further consolidation of the media industry, and favors making the media “more diverse”.

The Democratic Party is also on record against allowing any more media consolidation:

In contrast, Bush appointees to the FCC attempted to loosen the rules and allow more media consolidation. They were blocked by Congress after hundreds of thousands of people protested the new rules (including major conservative groups like the National Rifle Association):

So, the argument is that the media conglomerates are going to pay the polling firm to purposely slant the polls toward Kerry in order to help him get elected, even though he is directly opposed to the policies that they want, and Bush has pushed to give them exactly what they want.

This makes absolutely no sense. The corporate media has been pressing for rules to allow them to own ever more increasing amounts of media, and the Republican Party has been solidly behind them. Bush’s appointees to the FCC attempted to pass rules allowing even more consolidation, but were beat back by literally hundreds of thousands of negative comments, and some valiant Congressmen and Congresswomen.

So, the corporate media is going to have the polls faked so they can put in the man that is directly against their interests? I don’t think so.

And the motivation for the other theory, that voter fraud occurred? Pretty clear here, it is to put your man in the white house.

So which do you believe: faked exit polls (and only in selected races and states, paid for by corporations who want the opposite result), or faked vote totals from Republican officials that worked on Bush’s campaign.

I will give more information on how and where the vote totals were changed below.

Here are the comparisons, state by state, of the poll results compared to the reported vote totals. Note especially the third graphic, a table of presidential results for the swing states. Note that Florida and Ohio are the two states that went for Kerry in the exit polls and went for Bush in the reported vote.

In this section, I am going to give a short list of some of the impossible numbers, like more votes than registered voters, more absentee votes than ballots, etc.

So here is a short list of impossible numbers. Note that this is just a sampling. I intend to put together a database of all the information eventually. See the web sites at the end for more places to look for the “glitches”, and other information relating to voter fraud.

There is a congressman (John Conyers), of the House Committee on the Judiciary, who has detailed a number of questions about voter fraud to Ohio Secretary of State Blackwell. He has yet to see a response. In his letter, he describes, amongst other things:

Perry County has an incredibly high level of voter registration (91%), and of those, an extremely high percentage of registered voters with no voting activity before, and no signature on file. Of these, 3100 registered on a single day in 1977!

There is a pattern of extremely high numbers of votes for third party candidates in democratic precincts.

Now, the above numbers don’t show a pro-Bush lean, but they do demonstrate the impossibility factor pretty well.

Cleveland gets 18,472 votes with only 13,342 voters registered, and Cuyahoga County with 93,000 more votes than registered voters:

At the bottom of the page, I have a list of sites where there is a virtual database of sites about the voter fraud. Here you will find many more examples of impossible numbers. Due to time constraints, I will not attempt to put together a full database on these now, but I intend to in the next couple of weeks.

In this section, I will describe a number of studies of voting patterns that simply do not make statistical sense, like majority democrat counties going for Bush, turnout statistics in democratic counties/precincts being incredibly low, while republican turnout is incredibly high, etc.

The main thing to remember here is that 99.9% of the “glitches” that occurred in the 2004 election were in one direction: the glitch favored Bush. If the “glitches” were truly random, we would see glitches that favor Kerry as well. These are almost non-existent. I found one glitch favoring Kerry in all the research I did.

Here is one of the main problems, a bunch of democratic counties all of a sudden voting for Bush. Here in an election year where the main thrust of the democratic party candidate is “I’m not Bush!”, and the main mover for democrats is not pro-Kerry, but anti-Bush. Yet in these democratic county strongholds, Bush is getting up to 56% of the vote! I don’t believe that, do you?

Here is where two precincts were collocated, and if you voted on the wrong machine, you ended up casting a vote for the wrong person. Incredibly high votes for libertarian and constitution parties resulted. These were votes probably intended for Kerry:

Here is an analysis of turnout where the official turnout reported looks way too high in Bush precincts (too high to believe) and incredibly low in Kerry precincts. This site has very good data.

You will find an analysis of voting patterns which demonstrates weird patterns. 30 precincts with unbelievably low turnout: and some precincts in Miami with 97, 98% turnout:

I believe that what we are seeing a variety of voter fraud strategies, ranging from changing individual votes on the machines to simply changing the vote totals on the central machine. The fact is the GOP got greedy. They not only wanted to steal the election at the Electoral College level, they wanted to change the vote totals enough so that it appeared that Bush actually got a majority. The GOP’s operatives simply got greedy.

Add to that the normal amount of human error that occurs in these situations. If you have hundreds of people who are installing and setting parameters on vote switching software, you will come up with glitches like the impossible numbers above. Some people are just going to set it up wrong (I mean, 25 million negative votes? Someone screwed up that vote switching installation!)

Smoking Gun #1: Ok, so here is a guy who has a sworn affidavit that he wrote the vote switching software for Republican Representative Feeny:

Smoking Gun #2: Here, Bev Harris of Black Box Voting describes a county in Florida that attempted to give her a set of election tapes that were run on November 15th while throwing out the original signed tapes from November 2nd. If you don’t have anything to hide, what are you covering up? Sure enough, there were differences between the two data sets:

And, Diebold has installed three different sets of “books” and has installed backdoors in the software to allow machines to be hacked:

And the easiest way of all to steal the election, just change the vote totals on the central machine. We also know that the software for all of this is based on the Microsoft Windows operating system, and by simply altering an ACESS database, you can change voter totals at will.

And here is a fun demonstration with a serious discussion of the issues involved after.

Here are a couple of reports detailing the money that paid for fake technicians to rig voting machines:

So, we have vote changing software, and easily hacked vote totals at the central tabulators. We also have vast evidence that vote totals have been changed.

Why is it that voter fraud in Ukraine is more interesting than voter fraud here? It is because our “liberal” press is owned by corporations that stand to benefit from Bush being in office.

The new twist here is that the two copies would have a bar code or set of numbers that uniquely identifies that particular vote. This would not be in any way tied to the voter’s identification. The voter goes home with one, and the other stays for the audit trail. At the time of a recount, the voter should be able to show his or her code, and see exactly how their vote was recorded. This makes each citizen a possible auditor of the election. If voters turned up and found their recorded vote did not match what their paper record was, you have instantaneous proof of voter fraud. This is what we must insist upon.

If we Don’t defend democracy NOW, we won’t have to bother to next election. It will be too late.

Look at the second blog entry; he mentions lots of what you need, including a link to this:

It looks like there is a judge in Ohio who is not inclined to let third parties carry a challenge on their own. That is why it is more important than ever to tell Mr. Kerry what we the people want him to do. Here is a one click page where you can send your personal message to him, the DNC and the GAO, all at the same time

We know we are having an impact because the GAO is ready to launch an investigation based on the people who have appealed to them already. Now is the time to crank it up to the next level. Please post this link everywhere you can to everyone you know.

Wyoming: 106% Turnout of Registered Voters in 2004 General Elections --According to the 'Profile of Wyoming's Voters - Voter Registration and Voter Turnout' on the Wyoming Secretary of State's website, Wyoming had a turnout of 106% registered voters on November 2, 2004.

Wyoming had 232,396 registered voters - 62% of eligible voters for the 2004 General Elections; turnout of registered voters was 245,789, or 106% of registered voters.

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